Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
