Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
